On Tuesday, Feb. 10, USDA will be back with another edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. While the February report can tend to be a quiet event following the January data drop, having actual field level data to lean against leads to a more confident look into South American production, which will likely be the feature of the report next week.

USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CST on Tuesday.

CORN

On Jan. 12, USDA shocked the market with a much more bearish set of reports than was anticipated, raising almost every supply-side factor and sending the market to its largest single-day decline for the most-active futures contract in two-and-half years, while also undoing months of teeth-pulling rallying efforts in one fell swoop. In the month since, corn futures have been slowly but surely attempting to dig out of the crater left in the wake of that bearish surprise. Just this week, they made technical headway with closes above the 20-day and 100-day moving averages for the first time since Jan. 9.

When USDA returns next week, focus will shift from the supply side of the balance sheet to usage, which is already forecast to be record large in 2025-26. However, there is certainly still room for adjustment, particularly to export demand. As of Jan. 29 (the most recent USDA data), corn export commitments are running a solid 31% ahead of the same point in 2025. If there were to be a bullish adjustment, exports are a likely candidate. However, as a word of caution, USDA has shown a tendency to slow play their export forecast until the heaviest shipment period over March to May. Last year was a perfect example of this. Going into the February WASDE, the 2024-25 export program also carried a 28% year-over-year increase in commitments with USDA only forecasting a 7% increase. USDA chose not to adjust exports in either the February or March reports, instead waiting for shipment confirmation to begin increasing their forecast in April 2025. So, that being said, a revision higher on Tuesday is in no way a foregone conclusion.

In the Dow Jones pre-report survey of analysts, the average trade guess for 2025-26 corn ending stocks is 2.26 billion bushels (bb), an increase of 33 million bushels (mb) from January and would be the largest U.S. carryout in nine years. While I personally do not see ending stocks being this large by August, there may be a timing issue to be wary of. There is also a very good chance traders are playing it safe with stout estimates after almost everyone was caught off guard in January. Areas to watch for a demand cut and subsequent increase to stocks could be the feed and residual bucket, especially after last week's Cattle Inventory report showed yet another drawdown in the U.S. cow herd.

As for the world corn market, all eyes will be on South America given the time of year. Unlike previous reports, there is some harvest (and planting) activity USDA can use to inform their estimates. First corn harvest in Brazil is underway and early yield reports are good, with local agencies in southern Brazil states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul both forecasting year-over-year crop increases to the tune of 14% and 7%, respectively. Most Brazilian corn comes via the safrinha crop, which is currently being planted, but given the strong showing for first-crop corn, the Dow Jones survey guess calling for an increase of 1.6 million metric tons (mmt) from January to 132.6 mmt total seems fair at this point. As for Argentina, harvest is a way off yet. But conditions for the corn crop, especially early planted corn, have plummeted through 2026 thus far due to a very dry January. The average trade estimate for Tuesday is for a 100,000-mt cut from the January forecast to 52.9 mmt. Considering USDA is already trailing local Argentine agencies in their outlook, holding steady until the weather situation resolves itself through pollination would be a safe bet. All totaled, the expectation is that 2025-26 world corn ending stocks will increase slightly next week because of the above anticipated changes.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures have jumped back into the spotlight this week following a bullish social media post by President Donald Trump, praising his relationship with China's President Xi and suggesting China will look to extend their 2025-26 commitments from the prior 12 mmt goal to 20 mmt total for the season. Soybean futures have launched 40 to 50 cents in two sessions following the comments and now sit at almost two-month highs despite a fairly bearish January WASDE, which shifted the ending stocks situation in the U.S. from three-year lows to six-year highs, though bullish traders will argue that sentiment may turn once again.

As for Tuesday's WASDE, I would be very surprised if USDA gave any acknowledgement to the president's post, as there will be a desire to see a continuation of steady sales to China in coming weeks and months. However, the situation for the 2025-26 soybean export program has improved through January. Commitments remain 20% lower than the same point last year. But with USDA already anticipating a 16% year-over-year decline in exports, I would not be surprised to see USDA hold its 1.575 bb forecast steady while keying in on future sales to gauge future revisions. Meanwhile, crush demand remains stellar, with total volume through December running 7.5% ahead of 2024-25, with USDA forecasting a 5% increase year-over-year. The average estimate in the Dow Jones survey of analysts is for 348 mb of soybean ending stocks is a fair assumption, in my mind, although I tend to think ending stocks will ultimately find their way lower by August.

As for the world balance sheet, Brazil's soybean harvest is off to one of the quickest starts in recent history, with over 25% of the crop for top-producing state Mato Grosso already harvested as of this week. Yield reports are very good, and along with higher area, the 2026 crop is looking to be yet another record breaker for the world's largest soybean producer. The average trade guess for Tuesday is for a 1.2-mmt increase to 179.2-mmt total, though I would not be shocked to see this estimate pushed north of 180 mmt. As for Argentina, soybean conditions have also fallen through the January dry spell. But with a relatively small percentage of the crop setting and filling pods, there is still time to reverse course and maintain yield potential. For that reason, I'd expect to see USDA keep its forecast unchanged and near 48.5 mmt. The world balance sheet is expected to show a stocks growth of roughly 1 mmt from January, per the Dow Jones survey. But the most insightful dynamic to be mindful of may be how the Brazil increase is reflected in demand, that is whether the beans are seen as being crushed or exported.

WHEAT

Wheat prices have been generally mixed through the first month of 2026 but sit modestly higher than pre-WASDE levels and set two-month highs on the most-active March Kansas City contract last week. While much of the bullish speculation has regarded winterkill threats through the cold second half of January, USDA, for the time being, will keep its forecasts focused on the old-crop 2025-26 season in Tuesday's report.

The U.S. balance sheet saw 25 mb added to the bottom line in the January WASDE, largely because of less estimated feed and residual usage through the year. The average trade estimate for Tuesday is to see USDA reduce U.S. wheat reserves by 10 mb. The likely candidate for a boost in demand is the export category, with commitments as of the end of January still running 18% ahead of the same point last year, despite losing steam over much of December and January. USDA's current 900 mb estimate would equal a 9% year-over-year increase.

As for the world balance sheet, the consensus among analysts surveyed by Dow Jones is that the market will, at long last, get a reprieve from the seemingly never-ending supply additions in WASDE reports through late 2025. All totaled from the August report to the January report, world wheat production rose by over 35 mmt and world stockpiles by 14 mmt due to near or record production in several major exporting countries. Analysts expect world stocks to hold at 278.3 mmt in the February issue, the largest in five years, if true. This is a reasonable expectation for Tuesday given the time of year, with Southern Hemisphere harvests now wrapped up, though we could see some fine-tuning of figures. The next major world crop on deck is India, which is said to have record potential, but USDA will not publish an official volume estimate until the May WASDE.

**

Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST on Tuesday, Feb. 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's USDA February reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/…

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

Follow Rhett Montgomery on X: @R_D_Montgomery

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.